Prediction market volatility infrastructure
The volatility layer for prediction markets
Turn prediction market prices into implied vol and trade the mispricing. Scan Polymarket, Kalshi and Hyperliquid BTC and ETH markets, convert prices into PM-IV, compare to options vol in real time, and act on edge in cents, not narratives.
BTC & ETH · Above/Below · Up/Down · Price Ranges
BTC signal
Mispricing detected
- Market
- BTC Above 70K · YES
- Price
- 26¢
- PM-IV
- 42
- Options IV
- 56
- Fair value
- 33¢
PM Vol covers BTC & ETH across above/below, up/down, and range structures.
Probability is not volatility
Crypto prediction markets are liquid enough to contain real vol information, but traders still read isolated probabilities.
Probability pricing
A contract at 26¢ reads as “26% odds”; a social, narrative-driven probability.
Volatility reality
That same price embeds implied vol. Options markets price this structurally; prediction markets do not — yet.
How It Works
From market scan to actionable mispricing, in vol terms traders already use.
Scan
Polymarket, Kalshi, Hyperliquid and other crypto PM venues for BTC & ETH structures.
Convert
Above/below, up/down, and range prices → PM-IV.
Compare
PM-IV vs Deribit/Derive/Paradex, DVOL/BVIV, realized vol and ATR.
Recommend
Fair value, edge in cents, liquidity, bands - actionable insights.
Built for traders and agents
The core engine produces clear data and pricing signals.
- Fair value & edge in cents
- Liquidity & entry/exit bands
- Invalidation triggers
- Raw data and AI trade briefs
AI trade brief
“Above YES is rich vs options vol. +7¢ edge at current liquidity. Size small — book thin below 30¢. Exit if PM-IV compresses below 48 or BTC spot breaks 69.2K.”
Market coverage
Starting narrow on crypto prediction market structures where vol mispricing is tradable.
Assets
Market types
From trader tool to volatility feed
The same signals that power discretionary trades become structured data for the ecosystem, including AI agents that need machine-readable context.
- PM-IV surface (BTC, ETH)
- PM-IV vs options-IV spread
- Range-break probability index
- Prediction market skew index
- API for desks, MMs, vaults, bots & agents
Sign up for early access
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